Bitcoin's poor September performance: Red September trend
Red September shows Bitcoin's historical declines, with an average loss of 2.97% as September proves to be the least favorable month for crypto investors.
Bradley Hughes 2 min read
Understanding Red September in Bitcoin and stocks
The phenomenon termed ‘Red September’ underscores a notable trend in both Bitcoin and equity markets. For Bitcoin, it has ended in negative territory in eight of the last 13 years, with a recorded average loss of 2.97%, making September the least favourable month for the crypto asset, according to Decrypt. Similarly, the S&P 500 index has shown a repeated pattern of declines in September, reflecting an average loss since 1945, as highlighted by Yardeni Research.
Historical data backs the trend
Analyzing the data reveals that Bitcoin has experienced this downward spiral in September, achieving only a 38.5% win rate since 2013. CoinGlass reports that this decline isn’t driven solely by a few catastrophic events; the presence of a negative median return of 2.44% indicates that even in typical years, September is generally unkind to investors. Only June mirrors this pattern, clocking in a smaller average loss of 1.59%.
A backdrop of market conditions
The context for this year’s Red September is shaped significantly by broader economic factors. Bitcoin enters September 2026 around $77,500, following a nearly 25% rise in August. However, this growth occurs amid uncertainties, such as impending interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve which may impact investment strategies. Furthermore, the atmosphere surrounding the midterm elections can introduce additional volatility into the markets.
A look back at the previous years
The analysis of September data reveals that Bitcoin not only faced steep declines but also experienced its historical third-best month in September 2025, buoyed by a 5.16% gain. This reprieve from the usual downturn was short-lived, as October subsequently turned negative for Bitcoin due to external pressures, including trade tariffs. This cyclical behaviour points to a deeper relationship between market timing and investor sentiment.
Implications for Canadian investors
For Canadian investors, understanding these patterns is crucial. With entities like the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) regulating cryptocurrency holders and traders alike, aligning trading activities with market cycles could mitigate risks during historically adverse months. As Bitcoin and traditional stocks reflect similar Red September trends, a strategic approach during this period remains essential.